Annex 1 - Details of Economic and Fiscal Projections
The average of private sector forecasts has been used as the basis for fiscal planning since 1994. This helps ensure objectivity and transparency, and introduces an element of independence into the Government's fiscal forecast.
The Department of Finance Canada regularly surveys private sector economists on their views on the outlook for the Canadian economy. The economic forecast presented in this section is based on a survey conducted in September 2019.
The September 2019 survey includes the views of 14 private sector economists:
- BMO Capital Markets,
- Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec,
- Canadian Federation of Independent Business,
- CIBC World Markets,
- The Conference Board of Canada,
- IHS Markit,
- Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc.,
- Laurentian Bank Securities,
- National Bank Financial Markets,
- Royal Bank of Canada,
- TD Bank Financial Group, and
- The University of Toronto (Policy and Economic Analysis Program).
|Real GDP growth|
|2019 Economic and Fiscal Update 1||1.7||1.6||1.8||1.8||1.9||1.9||1.8|
|2019 Economic and Fiscal Update1||1.9||2.0||2.0||2.0||2.0||2.0||2.0|
|Nominal GDP growth|
|2019 Economic and Fiscal Update1||3.6||3.7||3.8||3.8||3.9||3.9||3.8|
|Nominal GDP level (billions of dollars)|
|2019 Economic and Fiscal Update1||2,304||2,388||2,479||2,574||2,675||2,778||–|
|Difference between Budget 2018 and 2019 Economic and Fiscal Update||-2||-5||-2||0||–||–||–|
|Difference between Budget 2019 and 2019 Economic and Fiscal Update||0||3||6||4||1||–||3|
|3-month treasury bill rate|
|2019 Economic and Fiscal Update||1.6||1.5||1.6||1.9||2.2||2.4||1.8|
|10-year government bond rate|
|2019 Economic and Fiscal Update||1.5||1.6||2.0||2.4||2.7||3.0||2.0|
|Exchange rate (US cents/C$)|
|2019 Economic and Fiscal Update||75.4||76.2||76.6||77.4||78.1||79.3||76.7|
|2019 Economic and Fiscal Update||5.7||5.8||5.8||5.8||5.8||5.8||5.8|
|Consumer Price Index inflation|
|2019 Economic and Fiscal Update||2.0||2.0||1.9||2.0||2.0||2.0||2.0|
|U.S. real GDP growth|
|2019 Economic and Fiscal Update||2.3||1.8||1.8||1.8||1.8||1.9||1.9|
|West Texas Intermediate crude oil price
($US per barrel)
|2019 Economic and Fiscal Update||57||57||58||62||64||65||59|
Changes to the Fiscal Outlook Since Budget 2019
|Budget 2019 budgetary balance||-14.9||-19.8||-19.7||-14.8||-12.1||-9.8|
|Adjustment for risk from Budget 2019||0.0||3.0||3.0||3.0||3.0||3.0|
|Budget 2019 budgetary balance
(without risk adjustment)
|Economic and fiscal developments since Budget 2019||0.9||-4.2||-5.9||-4.1||-2.2||-1.5|
|Revised budgetary balance before policy actions and investments||-14.0||-21.0||-22.6||-15.9||-11.3||-8.3|
|Policy actions since Budget 20192|
|Hibernia Dividend Backed Annuity Agreement with Newfoundland and Labrador||-1.9||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0|
|Other Policy Actions since Budget 2019||-1.5||0.5||0.9||1.1||1.0||1.2|
|Increase to the Basic Personal Amount||-0.7||-3.0||-4.1||-5.1||-6.0||-6.2|
|Final budgetary balance||-14.0||-25.1||-25.1||-19.1||-15.4||-13.3||-8.6|
|Federal debt (per cent of GDP)||30.8||30.9||30.9||30.5||30.0||29.3||28.5|
|Adjustment for risk3||-1.5||-3.0||-3.0||-3.0||-3.0||-3.0|
|Budgetary balance after adjustment for risk||-14.0||-26.6||-28.1||-22.1||-18.4||-16.3||-11.6|
|Federal debt after adjustment for risk (per cent of GDP)||30.8||31.0||31.0||30.8||30.4||29.8||29.1|
Economic and Fiscal Developments Since Budget 2019
|Economic and fiscal developments by component1:|
|Change in budgetary revenues|
|(1.1) Income taxes||-0.7||2.2||4.2||5.2||6.6||6.6|
|(1.2) Excise taxes/duties||-1.3||-1.4||-0.7||-0.6||-0.8||-0.9|
|(1.3) Fuel charge proceeds||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0|
|(1.4) Employment Insurance premiums||0.9||0.7||-0.3||-0.9||-1.1||-1.2|
|(1.5) Other revenues||1.2||0.2||-1.5||-1.6||-1.3||-0.8|
|(1) Total budgetary revenues||0.0||1.7||1.8||2.2||3.5||3.8|
|Change in program expenses|
|(2.1) Major transfers to persons||-0.1||1.0||0.6||0.5||0.6||1.1|
|(2.2) Major transfers to other levels of government||0.1||0.6||0.2||0.1||0.1||0.2|
|(2.3) Direct program expenses||0.6||-9.2||-13.2||-11.8||-10.6||-10.2|
|Of which: employee and future benefits expenses||0.0||-5.8||-9.6||-7.7||-5.5||-4.8|
|(2) Total program expenses||0.6||-7.6||-12.4||-11.2||-9.8||-8.9|
|(3) Public debt charges||0.3||1.8||4.8||4.9||4.1||3.7|
|(4) Total economic and fiscal developments||0.9||-4.2||-5.9||-4.1||-2.2||-1.5|
Relative to Budget 2019, budgetary revenues are projected to be higher over the forecast horizon, driven primarily by better-than-expected personal and corporate income tax revenues.
Corporate income tax revenues are expected to be higher relative to Budget 2019 due to strength in year-to-date fiscal results, as well as an improvement in the outlook for corporate profits.
Relative to Budget 2019, personal income tax revenues are expected to be higher across the forecast horizon, reflecting the carry-forward of stronger-than-expected revenues in 2018–19 and strength in year-to-date fiscal results.
These increases are partially offset by downward revisions to revenue from excise taxes and duties, reflecting both the carry-forward of weaker-than-expected net Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue in 2018–19 and lower expected growth in taxable consumption over the forecast horizon. Of note, the downward revision to revenues in 2019–20 is larger than in other years due to the earlier-than-projected removal of retaliatory tariffs on steel, aluminum and other products.
Employment Insurance (EI) premium revenues are projected to be higher in 2019–20 relative to Budget 2019 due to strength in year-to-date fiscal results. Across the remainder of the horizon, declines in the premium rate result in a downward revision to EI premium revenues. For 2020, the Canada Employment Insurance Commission has set the premium rate at $1.58 (per $100 of insurable earnings), three cents lower than projected in Budget 2019 and, as a result of a better-than-expected labour market outlook, the rate is now projected to decrease further in 2021 to $1.55.
Other revenues, such as those resulting from sales of goods and services, investments and loans, interest and penalties and Crown corporations' revenues, are lower starting in 2020–21, reflecting lower expected interest rates, which translate into lower returns on Crown assets.
With respect to expenses, major transfers to persons have been revised downwards across the forecast horizon relative to Budget 2019. This revision is primarily driven by a reduction in the forecast for EI benefits. A stronger-than-expected labour market has resulted in a lower forecasted unemployment rate, which is expected to lead to fewer EI beneficiaries.
Major transfers to other levels of government are lower than Budget 2019 projections. This decrease is largely a result of higher amounts recovered for the Quebec Abatement due to strength in the Quebec economy. This is partly offset in later years by an increase in forecasted Canada Health Transfer and Equalization transfer payments (reflecting a higher nominal gross domestic product (GDP) forecast, to which the transfers are indexed).
Compared to Budget 2019, direct program expenses are higher across the forecast horizon due in large part to increased expenses related to pensions and other employee future benefits as well as higher other operating and transfer expenses. With respect to pension and benefit costs, significantly lower projected interest rates relative to Budget 2019 mean higher expenses are attributed to the benefits earned during the year as well as to the Government's existing pension and benefit obligations. For additional information on the impact of pensions and other employee future benefits on the Government's expenses, refer to Details of the Increase in Pensions and Other Employee Future Benefit Expenses. The remaining increase in operating and transfer payments can be attributed to higher provisions for future claims and litigation, higher expenses for Canada Revenue Agency bad debt expense and refundable tax credits, and higher projected personnel expenses.
Over the fiscal horizon, policy actions announced since Budget 2019 are entirely offset by stronger projected personal and corporate income tax revenues. Costs related to the Basic Personal Amount are also partially offset by these revenue gains.
The Government will also launch the first phase of a comprehensive review of government spending and tax expenditures, to ensure that resources are efficiently allocated to continue to invest in people and keep the economy strong and growing. This review will result in $1.5 billion in annual savings, starting in 2020-21.
Compared to Budget 2019, public debt charges are lower across the forecast horizon, reflecting lower projected interest rates, which result in lower interest expenses on market debt, and pension and other employee future benefit obligations.
Pensions and other employee future benefits affect the Government's expenses in three ways:
- First, the Government records in operating expenses the estimated cost of benefits earned by employees during the year (i.e. current service costs).
- Second, at each year-end, the Government re-estimates the value of its obligations for previously accrued benefits. Benefit obligations are recorded on a present value—or discounted—basis, and year-over-year increases/decreases in the year-end discount rate can result in significant decreases/increases in the value of the benefit obligations. Changes in the value of the obligations are referred to as actuarial gains and losses. In accordance with accounting standards, these gains and losses are not recognized immediately but instead are amortized to operating expenses over a period of time.
- Third, since the Government's obligations for pensions and other employee future benefits are recorded on a present value basis, interest expense is recorded each year and added to the obligations to reflect the passage of time, as these liabilities are one year closer to settlement. Interest expense is recorded as part of public debt charges.
The following table provides an overview of the impact of the change in the Government's projections for pension and other employee future benefit expenses from Budget 2019.
|2019– 2020||2020– 2021||2021– 2022||2022– 2023||2023– 2024|
|Change in pensions and other employee future benefits expenses from Budget 2019|
|Direct program expenses|
|Current service costs||-1.9||-3.1||-2.5||-1.8||-1.6|
|Public debt charges||0.9||2.1||1.4||0.7||0.6|
|Total change in pensions and other employee
future benefits expenses
|Projected actuarial (losses) gains - Budget 2019 and EFU 2019|
|Budget 2019 actuarial (losses) gains||-6.9||-3.4||-1.6||0.0||0.4|
|Change since Budget 2019||-3.9||-6.5||-5.2||-3.7||-3.2|
|EFU 2019 actuarial (losses) gains||-10.8||-9.9||-6.8||-3.7||-2.9|
Summary Statement of Transactions
Table A1.4 summarizes the Government's projected financial position over the forecast horizon. These projections are based on the average private sector forecast for the economy discussed above.
This outlook includes new policy actions taken since Budget 2019.
|Public debt charges||23.3||24.4||23.7||25.3||27.3||29.5||31.5|
|Adjustment for risk||-1.5||-3.0||-3.0||-3.0||-3.0||-3.0|
|Final budgetary balance||-14.0||-26.6||-28.1||-22.1||-18.4||-16.3||-11.6|
|Per cent of GDP|
|Public debt charges||1.0||1.1||1.0||1.0||1.1||1.1||1.1|
Outlook for Budgetary Revenues
|Personal income tax||163.9||171.6||177.5||183.8||190.4||197.9||206.4|
|Corporate income tax||50.4||46.8||49.1||52.4||54.8||57.1||59.4|
|Non-resident income tax||9.4||9.7||9.9||10.0||10.2||10.3||10.7|
|Goods and Services Tax||38.2||39.6||41.1||42.7||44.3||45.9||47.6|
|Customs import duties||6.9||5.7||5.9||6.1||6.4||6.3||6.5|
|Other excise taxes/duties||12.1||12.5||12.7||12.8||12.9||12.9||12.9|
|Total tax revenues||280.8||285.9||296.2||308.0||319.0||330.4||343.6|
|Fuel charge proceeds1||0.0||2.6||4.6||6.1||7.5||7.5||7.5|
|Employment Insurance premium revenues||22.3||22.6||22.5||22.7||23.3||24.1||24.9|
|Enterprise Crown corporations||7.1||7.3||7.4||7.9||8.4||9.3||10.1|
|Net foreign exchange||1.7||2.0||1.8||1.9||2.0||2.3||2.7|
|Total budgetary revenues||332.2||340.1||352.3||367.2||381.8||395.9||411.9|
|Per cent of GDP|
|Total tax revenues||12.6||12.4||12.4||12.4||12.4||12.4||12.4|
|Fuel charge proceeds||0.0||0.1||0.2||0.2||0.3||0.3||0.3|
|Employment Insurance premium revenues||1.0||1.0||0.9||0.9||0.9||0.9||0.9|
|Total budgetary revenues||14.9||14.8||14.7||14.8||14.8||14.8||14.8|
Table A1.5 sets out the Government's projection for budgetary revenues. Overall, budgetary revenues are expected to increase by 2.4 per cent in 2019–20, largely reflecting temporary factors impacting corporate income tax revenues, customs import duties and other revenues. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, revenues are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.0 per cent, in line with projected growth in nominal GDP.
Personal income tax (PIT) revenues—the largest component of budgetary revenues—are projected to increase by $7.7 billion, or 4.7 per cent, to $171.6 billion in 2019–20. This reflects continuing strength in the labour market and better-than-expected 2018–19 results that are expected to carry forward. Over the remainder of the projection period, PIT revenues are forecast to increase faster than growth in nominal GDP, averaging 3.8 per cent annually, reflecting the progressive nature of the income tax system combined with projected real income gains.
Corporate income tax (CIT) revenues are projected to decrease by $3.6 billion, or 7.1 per cent, to $46.8 billion in 2019–20, due to the cost of tax incentives introduced in the 2018 Fall Economic Statement to encourage business investment. Over the remainder of the projection period, CIT revenues are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.9 per cent, driven by growth in corporate profits and a lower cost of the tax measures as they mature.
Non-resident income tax revenues are income taxes paid by non-residents on Canadian-sourced income, notably dividends and interest payments. For 2019–20, non-resident income tax revenues are projected to increase by $0.3 billion, or 3.2 per cent. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, these revenues are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.0 per cent.
Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenues are forecast to grow by 3.6 per cent in 2019–20 based on recent financial results and projected growth in taxable consumption over the rest of the year. Over the remainder of the projection period, GST revenues are forecast to grow by 3.8 per cent per year, on average, based on the outlook for taxable consumption.
Customs import duties are projected to decline 16.6 per cent in 2019–20 due to the removal of retaliatory tariffs on steel, aluminum and other products. Over the remainder of the projection horizon, annual customs import duties are projected to increase at an average of 2.5 per cent, based on the outlook for imports.
Other excise taxes and duties (OETD) are projected to increase by $0.4 billion, or 3.2 per cent, to $12.5 billion in 2019–20, based on recent financial results. Over the remainder of the projection horizon, OETD revenues are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.6 per cent based on historical consumption trends.
The revenue outlook includes an estimate for fuel charge proceeds that arise from the provinces and territories that are part of the federal pollution pricing system. In Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, these proceeds will be returned primarily through Climate Action Incentive payments to eligible individuals and families in those provinces. In Yukon and Nunavut, proceeds will be returned directly to those governments.
EI premium revenues are projected to rise by 1.6 per cent in 2019–20 as growth in employment earnings is partially offset by declines in the EI premium rate, from $1.66 per $100 of insurable earnings in 2018 to $1.62 in 2019, and to $1.58 in 2020 (as announced in September by the Canada Employment Insurance Commission). EI premiums are then projected to decrease by 0.7 per cent in 2020–21, as the premium rate is expected to decline further to $1.55 in 2021. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, EI premium revenues are projected to grow at an average of 2.6 per cent annually, driven by growth in employment and in earnings.
Other revenues consist of three broad components: net income from enterprise Crown corporations; other program revenues from returns on investments, proceeds from the sales of goods and services, and other miscellaneous revenues; and revenues in the Exchange Fund Account.
Enterprise Crown corporation revenues are projected to increase by 2.4 per cent in 2019–20, and grow thereafter at an average annual rate of 6.7 per cent over the remainder of the forecast horizon, reflecting outlooks presented in the corporate plans of respective enterprise Crown corporations and higher projected revenue from the Crown Borrowing Program, reflecting the projected increase in interest rates over the horizon.
Other program revenues are affected by consolidated Crown corporation revenues, interest rates, inflation, exchange rate movements (which affect the Canadian-dollar value of foreign-denominated assets) and flow-through items that give rise to an offsetting expense and therefore do not impact the budgetary balance. These revenues are projected to decrease by 3.0 per cent in 2019–20, reflecting a decrease in interest and penalty revenues and lower interest revenues from Canada Student Loans. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, these revenues are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.2 per cent as a result of growth in revenue from sales of goods and services and interest and penalty revenues.
Net foreign exchange revenues, which consist mainly of returns on investments held in the Exchange Fund Account, are volatile and sensitive to fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and foreign interest rates. These revenues are projected to increase by 22.7 per cent in 2019–20, due in large part to an increase in the expected income of the Exchange Fund Account. From 2020–21 to 2024–25, net foreign exchange revenues are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 10.2 per cent, largely as a result of a projected increase in interest rates.
|EI premium revenues||22.3||22.6||22.5||22.7||23.3||24.1||24.9|
|EI administration and other expenses2||1.9||2.0||1.9||1.9||1.8||1.8||1.8|
|EI Operating Account annual balance||1.7||1.6||0.4||-1.0||-1.4||-0.9||-1.0||-0.2|
|EI Operating Account
|Projected premium rate (per $100 of insurable earnings)||1.66||1.62||1.58||1.55||1.55||1.55||1.55||1.55|
The Employment Insurance Operating Account operates within the Consolidated Revenue Fund. As such, EI-related revenues and expenses that are credited and charged to the Account, respectively, in accordance with the Employment Insurance Act, are consolidated with those of the Government, and impact the budgetary balance. For consistency with the EI premium rate, which is set on a calendar-year basis with the objective of having the Account break even over time, the annual and cumulative balances of the Account are also presented on a calendar-year basis.
The EI Operating Account is expected to record annual surpluses of $1.6 billion in 2019 and $0.4 billion in 2020, before recording annual deficits for the remainder of the horizon. For fiscal planning purposes, an EI premium rate of $1.55 has been applied from 2021 onwards (a reduction of three cents from the recently announced 2020 rate) such that the EI Operating Account achieves cumulative balance by 2027.
Outlook for Program Expenses
|Major transfers to persons|
|Employment Insurance benefits1||18.9||19.3||21.0||22.5||23.4||23.7||24.6|
|Major transfers to other levels of government|
|Canada Health Transfer||38.6||40.4||41.9||43.4||45.0||46.8||48.6|
|Canada Social Transfer||14.2||14.6||15.0||15.5||15.9||16.4||16.9|
|Territorial Formula Financing||3.8||3.9||4.2||4.4||4.5||4.7||4.8|
|Gas Tax Fund2||4.3||2.2||2.2||2.3||2.3||2.4||2.4|
|Home care and mental health||0.9||1.1||1.3||1.5||1.2||1.2||1.2|
|Other fiscal arrangements3||-4.7||-5.7||-5.5||-5.8||-6.1||-6.4||-6.8|
|Direct program expenses|
|Fuel charge proceeds returned4||0.7||3.0||5.2||6.5||7.5||7.5||7.5|
|Other transfer payments||51.8||55.8||55.9||55.1||56.1||57.6||57.9|
| Losses (gains) from employee
future benefit plans
|Total program expenses||322.9||340.8||353.6||361.0||370.0||379.8||389.1|
|Per cent of GDP|
|Major transfers to persons||4.3||4.3||4.4||4.5||4.5||4.5||4.5|
| Major transfers to other levels
|Direct program expenses||6.8||7.2||7.1||6.8||6.6||6.4||6.2|
|Total program expenses||14.5||14.8||14.8||14.6||14.4||14.2||14.0|
Table A1.6 provides an overview of the projection for program expenses by major component. Program expenses consist of three main categories: major transfers to persons, major transfers to other levels of government, and direct program expenses.
Major transfers to persons—which consist of elderly, EI and children's benefits—are projected to increase from $99.5 billion in 2019–20 to $125.5 billion in 2024–25.
Elderly benefits, which are comprised of Old Age Security, Guaranteed Income Supplement and Allowance payments to qualifying seniors, are projected to grow from $56.1 billion in 2019–20 to $74.2 billion in 2024–25, or approximately 5.8 per cent per year. The expected increase in elderly benefits is primarily due to a projected increase in the population of seniors.
EI benefits are projected to be $19.3 billion in 2019–20. Over the remainder of the projection period, EI benefits are projected to grow at an average of 4.9 per cent annually, reflecting expected gains in average weekly benefits and growth in the number of beneficiaries.
Children's benefits are projected to rise from $24.1 billion in 2019–20 to $26.8 billion in 2024–25, or approximately 2.1 per cent annually, reflecting the indexation of benefits and an increase in the projected number of children eligible for the benefit.
Major transfers to other levels of government, which include the Canada Health Transfer (CHT), the Canada Social Transfer (CST), Equalization, Territorial Formula Financing and the Gas Tax Fund, among others, are expected to increase over the forecast horizon, from $76.3 billion in 2019–20 to $91.0 billion in 2024–25.
The CHT is projected to grow from $40.4 billion in 2019–20 to $48.6 billion in 2024–25. The CHT grows in line with a three-year moving average of nominal GDP growth, with funding guaranteed to increase by at least 3.0 per cent per year. The CST is legislated to grow at 3.0 per cent per year. Gas Tax Fund payments are indexed at 2.0 per cent per year, with increases applied in $100 million increments. Home care and mental health transfers are projected to grow from $1.1 billion in 2019–20 to $1.2 billion in 2024–25.
Direct program expenses—which include transfer payments administered by departments, operating expenses and the losses (gains) from employee future benefits—are projected to rise to $165.0 billion in 2019–20 and further to $172.6 billion in 2024–25.
The projected increase in direct program expenses is driven by Climate Action Incentive payments and fuel charge proceeds returned through other mechanisms, which is expected to increase from $3.0 billion in 2019–20 to $7.5 billion in 2024–25. Transfer payments administered by departments are expected to be relatively stable over the forecast horizon, increasing from $55.8 billion in 2019–20 to $57.9 billion in 2024–25.
Operating expenses reflect the cost of doing business, including current pension service costs, for more than 100 government departments, agencies and Crown corporations. Operating expenses are projected to reach $95.4 billion in 2019–20. Across the projection period, operating expenses are projected to grow by about 2.4 per cent annually, reaching $107.4 billion in 2024–25.
Losses from employee future benefit plans represent changes in the measurement of the Government's obligations for pensions and other employee future benefits accrued in previous fiscal years. These losses are expected to increase in 2019–20, due mainly to a decrease in the discount rates used to value the obligations. Thereafter, losses are expected to gradually decrease over the forecast horizon, reflecting a projected rise in discount rates, leading to a forecast gain of $0.3 billion in 2024–25.
Policy Actions Taken Since Budget 2019
|2019– 2020||2020– 2021||2021– 2022||2022– 2023||2023– 2024||2024– 2025||Total|
|Government Operations, Fairness and Openness||2,188||209||132||97||98||96||2,819|
|Rural Economic Development Secretariat||4||4||0||0||0||0||8|
|Funding provided to Infrastructure Canada to establish a secretariat for the Minister of Rural Economic Development. The secretariat will support the Minister in the development of a federal strategy to capitalize on rural opportunities, as well as to lead and support the rollout of key federal initiatives in rural communities, such as infrastructure investments and broadband coverage.|
|Hibernia Dividend Backed Annuity Agreement with Newfoundland and Labrador||1,898||36||34||33||32||30||2,064|
|On April 1, 2019, Canada and the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) concluded a joint review of the 2005 "Arrangement between the Government of Canada and the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador on Offshore Revenues" and finalized the Hibernia Dividend Backed Annuity Agreement. As part of this Agreement, Canada will provide annual payments, in the net amount of $2.5 billion, made by Canada Development Investment Corporation to NL over the 38-year period starting in 2019 and concluding in 2056.|
|Remission Order—Fiscal Stabilization 2015–16||27||0||0||0||0||0||27|
|The Government of Canada decided to extinguish $26.8 million in debt owed by the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador and the Province of Alberta with respect to the overpayments of their 2015–16 fiscal stabilization claims. The overpayment totaled $23.7 million for Newfoundland and Labrador and $3.1 million for Alberta.|
|Royal Canadian Mounted Police Contract Policing Funding Adjustment||132||133||134||135||136||136||805|
|Less: Projected Revenues||-119||-119||-119||-119||-119||-119||-713|
|Adjustments to funding and revenues for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police for contract policing as per the Police Services Agreements negotiated with provinces, territories and municipalities.|
|Support for Canola Farmers||67||46||46||46||46||46||299|
|Estimated provisions associated with amendments to the Advance Payment Program (APP) administered by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada to support Canadian farmers. Amendments will raise the maximum limit of cash advances available through the APP from $400,000 to $1,000,000, and increase the amount of APP cash advances that are available interest-free for canola advances within the 2019 program year from $100,000 to $500,000.|
|Resolving Income Security Program Disputes More Quickly and Easily||-5||24||38||17||17||16||108|
|Less: Projected Revenues||-3||-10||-10||-11||-11||-11||-56|
|Less: Funds from CPP Account||0||-5||-7||-7||-7||-7||-34|
|Funding provided to Employment and Social Development Canada and the Administrative Tribunals Support Service of Canada to implement additional improvements to make the recourse process for the Employment Insurance (EI), the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and the Old Age Security (OAS) programs faster and more client-centric. A portion of this funding will be charged to the EI Operating Account and offset by higher EI premium revenues over time. Another portion will be sourced from the CPP Account and offset each year by revenues to that account.|
|Investing in the Federal Courts||1||4||6||9||10||12||41|
|Funding for the Courts Administration Service to establish and implement a new Courts Registry Management System. This funding will facilitate access to justice by helping the Courts Administration Service to continue to provide efficient and effective support to the Federal Court, the Federal Court of Appeal, the Court Martial Appeal Court and the Tax Court of Canada.|
|Compensation to Provinces for Costs Associated with Irregular Migration||343||0||0||0||0||0||343|
|Less: Funds Previously Provisioned in the Fiscal Framework||-274||0||0||0||0||0||-274|
|To provide compensation to provinces for costs incurred relating to irregular migration in 2017 and 2018, such as interim housing, social assistance and education.|
|Ensuring a Safe and Secure Canada Day 2019||3||0||0||0||0||0||3|
|Funding for Canadian Heritage to support safety and security measures in the nation's capital during Canada Day 2019 celebrations.|
|The Next Generation of Public Service Pay||22||88||8||0||0||0||117|
|Less: Funds Sourced from Existing Departmental Resources||-4||0||0||0||0||0||-4|
|Additional funding provided to the Treasury Board Secretariat to explore a possible move away from the Phoenix pay system. By partnering with the private sector and government departments, the Treasury Board Secretariat will assess the feasibility of potential pay and human resource system replacements.|
|Benefit Delivery Modernization and Workload Pressures||68||19||8||0||0||0||94|
|Less: Projected Revenues||-2||-6||-6||-7||-7||-7||-36|
|Less: Funds from CPP Account||-9||-3||0||0||0||0||-12|
|Funding provided to Employment and Social Development Canada to modernize benefit delivery systems, and address workload pressures related to the Employment Insurance (EI) and Temporary Foreign Worker programs. A portion of this funding will be charged to the EI Operating Account. Another portion will be sourced from the Canada Pension Plan Account and offset each year by revenues to that account.|
|Flooding Disaster Relief||3||0||0||0||0||0||3|
|Funding provided to Public Safety Canada to provide a financial contribution to the Canadian Red Cross to deliver disaster relief services to victims of massive flooding.|
|Increased Legal Support to Help Reduce Delays for Asylum Claims||27||0||0||0||0||0||27|
|Funding provided to the Department of Justice Canada to support the delivery of immigration and refugee legal aid services by provinces in 2019-20, as announced on August 12, 2019.|
|Divestiture of Espace 400e||7||0||0||0||0||0||7|
|Funding provided to the Parks Canada Agency to divest a federal property known as Espace 400e to the city of Québec as announced on August 26, 2019.|
|Addressing Air Passenger Complaints||4||0||0||0||0||0||4|
|Funding provided to the Canadian Transportation Agency to respond to higher air passenger complaint volumes. This will allow passengers to receive more timely resolution of their complaints.|
|Supporting a Centre of Expertise in Artificial Intelligence||1||3||2||3||2||0||10|
|Less: Funds Sourced from Existing Departmental Resources||-1||-3||-2||-3||-2||0||-10|
|Funding provided to Canada Economic Development for Quebec Regions to support a Centre of Expertise in Artificial Intelligence, as announced on September 6, 2019. This will allow an international centre of expertise to be created in Montréal as part of the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence.|
|Growth, Innovation, Infrastructure and the Environment||204||313||130||6||-1||0||651|
|Returning Fuel Charge Proceeds to Support Certain Sectors, and Federal Programming in Ontario||347||106||0||0||0||0||453|
|Less: Funds Previously Provisioned in the Fiscal Framework||-229||0||0||0||0||0||-229|
|Less: Funds Sourced from Existing Departmental Resources||-106||-106||0||0||0||0||-212|
|Funding provided to Environment and Climate Change Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Indigenous Services Canada, and Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada for programming to return a portion of the direct carbon pollution pricing fuel charge proceeds to small and medium-sized enterprises, municipalities, universities, schools, hospitals, colleges, non-profit organizations, and Indigenous communities. Funding was also provided to Environment and Climate Change Canada for the Energy Savings Rebate program and other programming in Ontario.|
|Supporting Pollution Pricing Rebates in Yukon and the Northwest Territories||4||1||0||0||0||0||5|
|Less: Funds Sourced from Existing Departmental Resources||-4||-1||0||0||0||0||-5|
|Funding provided to the Canada Revenue Agency for the set-up costs of the federal administration of the programs to return the proceeds of pollution pricing in Yukon and the Northwest Territories.|
|Towards Zero Domestic Plastic Waste||12||30||23||0||0||0||64|
|Less: Funds Sourced from Existing Departmental Resources||-1||-2||-2||0||0||0||-5|
|Funding provided to Environment and Climate Change Canada, Transport Canada, Public Services and Procurement Canada, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, and Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada to take action to reduce Canada's plastic waste. Funding will support innovation, promote affordable and safe plastics alternatives, and contribute to the G7 Oceans Plastic Waste Charter including by helping retrieve and dispose of ghost fishing gear, as announced in June 2019 and August 2019.|
|Regional Economic Infrastructure Initiative||8||25||25||24||0||0||82|
|Less: Funds Sourced from Existing Departmental Resources||-8||-25||-25||-24||0||0||-82|
|Less: Year-over-year Reallocation of Funding||7||-4||-7||6||-1||0||0|
|Funding provided to Canada Economic Development for Quebec Regions for the Regional Economic Infrastructure Initiative. The initiative aims to support infrastructure projects that contribute to the economic dynamism and attractiveness of communities. Funds will be sourced from the existing New Building Canada Fund—Provincial-Territorial Infrastructure Component.|
|Next Steps to Further Explore High Frequency Rail||8||8||0||0||0||0||16|
|Less: Year-over-year Reallocation of Funding||-3||-2||0||0||0||0||-5|
|Funding provided to Transport Canada and VIA Rail Canada to further explore high frequency rail in the Quebec City - Toronto corridor, as announced on June 25, 2019. This funding will be used to establish a Joint Project Team alongside the Canada Infrastructure Bank, and support work to preserve the option of interoperability with regional transit providers in Montréal and Toronto.|
|Additional Funding for Fuel Charge Administration in Alberta||15||14||14||0||0||0||43|
|Funding provided to the Canada Revenue Agency to administer the fuel charge component of the Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act in Alberta, following the province's repeal of the provincial carbon levy.|
|Women Entrepreneurship Fund||10||0||0||0||0||0||10|
|Funding provided to the regional development agencies to top up the Women Entrepreneurship Fund, as announced in June 2019. This will bring the Fund to a total of $30 million, and will support approximately 100 more projects at women-owned and women-led businesses across Canada.|
|Climate Action Incentive Payments—Net Fiscal Impact||145||269||101||0||0||0||515|
|The net fiscal impact above reflects the Climate Action Incentive payments delivered in Alberta and the elimination of the provisions for Climate Action Incentive payments in New Brunswick for 2020–21 and subsequent years. It also reflects adjustments to the Climate Action Incentive payment amounts for Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
As previously announced in the 2018 Fall Economic Statement, the accounting treatment of Climate Action Incentive payments requires some of the costs to be borne in the fiscal year prior to the fuel charge being collected, because they are delivered through the personal income tax system through returns for the previous tax year. In practice, however, the Government of Canada is simply taking the direct proceeds from the fuel charge and returning all the proceeds to the province of origin.
|Labour Markets, Health, Safety and Economic Prosperity of Canadians||124||96||29||24||17||12||301|
|Supporting Health Canada's Regulatory Operations||35||0||0||0||0||0||35|
|Funding provided to Health Canada to support core regulatory operations related to drugs and medical devices.|
|Supporting the Harbourfront Centre||8||0||0||0||0||0||8|
|Funding provided to Canadian Heritage to support the Harbourfront Centre in Toronto so that it can continue to deliver arts, cultural and recreational programming.|
|Housing Supply Challenge—Transfer of Initiative from Infrastructure Canada to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation||0||63||63||63||63||50||300|
|Less: Funds Previously Provisioned in the Fiscal Framework||0||-63||-63||-63||-63||-50||-300|
|Funding provided to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation for the Housing Supply Challenge, which will invite municipalities and other stakeholder groups across Canada to propose new ways to break down barriers that limit the creation of new housing. This funding has been initially identified for Infrastructure Canada in Budget 2019.|
|Indigenous Peoples' Space at 100 Wellington||7||5||3||0||0||0||16|
|Funding provided to Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada to support the establishment of an Indigenous Peoples' Space at 100 Wellington Street in Ottawa.|
|Supporting Telefilm Canada||8||0||0||0||0||0||8|
|Funding provided to Telefilm Canada to support French-language feature film production in Quebec.|
|National Strategy to Combat Human Trafficking||3||15||14||13||13||11||69|
|Less: Funds Sourced from Existing Departmental Resources||0||0||0||0||0||0||-2|
|Funding provided to Public Safety Canada, the Canada Border Services Agency, Women and Gender Equality Canada, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, Public Services and Procurement Canada, and the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada to support Canada's new National Strategy to Combat Human Trafficking, as announced on September 4, 2019. The strategy will empower victims and survivors, prevent more of these crimes from taking place, protect those vulnerable to trafficking, embrace partnerships, and prosecute human traffickers.|
|Removing Sex-Based Discrimination in the Indian Act||12||9||0||0||0||0||21|
|Funding provided to Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada to support the implementation of An Act to amend the Indian Act in response to the Superior Court of Quebec decision in Descheneaux c. Canada (Procureur general). Funding will support the registration of eligible individuals and continue engagement with First Nations communities on the implementation of legislation.|
|Addressing the Findings of the Qikiqtani Truth Commission||18||3||0||0||0||0||20|
|Funding provided to Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada to work in partnership with the Qikiqtani Inuit Association to build a long-term and sustainable response to the Qikiqtani Truth Commission's findings, including funding to implement programming for Qikiqtani Inuit to promote Inuit culture, healing and well-being for current and future generations.|
|B.C. Women's Hospital and Health Centre||2||2||2||2||2||0||10|
|Funding provided to the Canadian Institutes of Health Research to support national cervical cancer research, as announced on June 4, 2019. This research will focus on studying human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and screening methods and work to implement findings at a national level with the goal of improving the health of Canadians.|
|Additional Funding for Family Information Liaison Units||0||7||7||7||0||0||22|
|Funding provided to Justice Canada to support Family Information Liaison Units, as announced on December 4, 2019. The Family Information Liaison Units help families access available information about their missing and murdered loved ones from multiple government sources.|
|Addressing the Opioid Crisis and Methamphetamines||28||49||0||0||0||0||76|
|Funding provided to Health Canada and the Public Health Agency of Canada to help address the opioid crisis and problematic methamphetamine use.|
|Anti-Money Laundering Support for the RCMP||1||1||1||1||1||1||8|
|Funding provided to the RCMP to invest in information management and information technology infrastructure to improve capacity to better process the volume of big data produced in the context of federal investigations, including money laundering.|
|Supporting the Youth Take Charge Program||1||3||0||0||0||0||3|
|Funding provided to Canadian Heritage for the Youth Take Charge Program to support projects delivered by youth-serving organizations.|
|Support to the First Nations Technical Institute||1||2||2||0||0||0||5|
|Less: Funds Sourced from Existing Departmental Resources||-1||-2||-2||0||0||0||-5|
|Funding provided to the Federal Economic Development Agency for Southern Ontario, as announced on September 6, 2019, to strengthen the aviation training program of the First Nations Technical Institute. This will allow more Indigenous students to become commercial pilots.|
|Emergency Management-Related Payments to Municipalities||4||0||0||0||0||0||4|
|Funding provided to Public Safety Canada to support payments for emergency management and policing costs incurred by Canadian municipalities.|
|Trade, International Relations and Security||378||19||9||52||50||11||520|
|Implementation of Canada-Costa Rica Free Trade Agreement Tariff Commitments||2||3||3||3||3||3||15|
|Implements certain preferential tariff commitments under the Canada-Costa Rica Free Trade Agreement.|
|Canadian Coast Guard Fleet Renewal||25||31||41||31||41||39||208|
|Less: Funds Previously Provisioned in the Fiscal Framework||0||0||0||-5||-17||-30||-52|
|Funding provided to Fisheries and Oceans Canada (Canadian Coast Guard) to enable the acquisition of 18 new large vessels, to initiate a competitive process to design a new small vessel class, to extend the life of the existing fleet, and to bolster internal Coast Guard capacity. As announced on May 22, 2019, this will allow the Coast Guard to renew the fleet to ensure it can continue to deliver on its missions including search and rescue, environmental response, ice breaking, ocean science, and marine navigation and communications.|
|Launching a New International Education Strategy||24||30||32||31||31||8||156|
|Less: Funds Previously Provisioned in the Fiscal Framework||-24||-30||-32||-31||-31||-8||-156|
|Less: Year-over-year Reallocation of Funding||3||-15||-35||23||23||0||0|
|Funding provided to Employment and Social Development Canada, Global Affairs Canada, and Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada for a new International Education Strategy. The Strategy will help Canada's youth strengthen global ties and acquire the skills needed to be successful in an increasingly competitive global knowledge economy, including problem solving, communication and adaptability. It will help more Canadian students participate in study, work and travel opportunities abroad, as well as invest in promotional activities to ensure that foreign students continue choosing Canada as their study destination of choice. Funding for the Strategy was announced in Budget 2019, with specific allocations for each department subsequently determined as part of a developed implementation plan.|
|Purchase of Light Armoured Vehicles||1||1||12||48||86||101||249|
|Less: Funds Sourced from Existing Departmental Resources||-1||-1||-12||-48||-86||-101||-249|
|Purchase of Light Armoured Vehicles for the Canadian Armed Forces from General Dynamics Land Systems–Canada to satisfy requirements for Armoured Combat Support Vehicles identified in Canada's defence policy, Strong, Secure, Engaged.|
|Global Health Investments||0||100||100||100||300||300||900|
|Less: Funds previously provisioned in the International Assistance Envelope||0||-100||-100||-100||-300||-300||-900|
|Funding for Global Affairs Canada to promote the health and rights of women and girls around the world. This investment will help advance the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, promote sexual and reproductive health rights, and build on Canada's leadership on global gender equality.|
|Payment to the Canadian Commercial Corporation||3||0||0||0||0||0||3|
|Funding provided to Canadian Commercial Corporation to support its operations while a comprehensive review of the organization is underway.|
|Support for Dairy Farmers||345||0||0||0||0||0||345|
|Funding provided to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, as announced on August 16, 2019, to provide full and fair support to Canadian dairy farmers as they address challenges resulting from the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade deals.|
|Funding for Closing the Investment Gap Initiative||3||0||0||0||0||0||3|
|Less: Funds previously provisioned in the International Assistance Envelope||-3||0||0||0||0||0||-3|
|Funding for Global Affairs Canada to enable low-carbon and sustainable infrastructure in developing countries through the Closing the Investment Gap Initiative.|
|Technical Corrections to CPTPP Tariff Rates||1||0||0||0||0||0||1|
|Corrects a technical error with the implementation of tariff commitments from the CPTPP.|
|Review of Government Spending and Tax Expenditures – Phase I||0||-1,500||-1,500||-1,500||-1,500||-1,500||-7,500|
|The Government will launch the first phase of a comprehensive review of government spending and tax expenditures, to ensure that resources are efficiently allocated to continue to invest in people and keep the economy strong and growing.|
|Net Fiscal Impact—Policy Actions Taken Since Budget 2019||2,894||-862||-1,200||-1,321||-1,337||-1,381||-3,208|
|(Net) fiscal impact of non-announced measures||522||383||324||235||332||171||1,967|
|The net fiscal impact of measures that are not announced is presented at the aggregate level, and would include provisions for anticipated Cabinet decisions not yet made and funding decisions related to national security, commercial sensitivity, contract negotiations and litigation issues.|
|Policy Actions proposed on December 9, 2019|
|Reduction in Personal Income Tax due to Increase in the Basic Personal Amount||690||3,015||4,050||5,145||6,020||6,230||25,150|
|Funding for the Canada Revenue Agency||0||1||1||1||1||0||4|
|The Basic Personal Amount ensures that Canadians can receive a basic amount of income before paying federal income tax. the Government proposes to increase the Basic Personal Amount and two related amounts, the Spouse or Common-Law Partner Amount and the Eligible Dependant Credit, over four years, starting in 2020 and rising to $15,000 by 2023. The increase in these amounts would be phased out for high-income individuals.|
|Net Fiscal Impact—Total Policy Actions Taken Since Budget 2019||4,105||2,537||3,174||4,060||5,015||5,020||23,912|
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