Table of Contents

Annex 1: Economic and Fiscal Outlook - Text Version

Chart A1.1

Labour Market Since November 2015
Date Cumulative change in employment (left scale) Unemployment rate (right scale)
2015-11 7.1
2015-12 9.0 7.1
2016-01 4.5 7.2
2016-02 11.5 7.2
2016-03 42.8 7.0
2016-04 56.7 7.1
2016-05 48.5 6.9
2016-06 67.7 6.8
2016-07 57.6 7.0
2016-08 94.5 7.0
2016-09 161.1 7.0
2016-10 196.9 6.9
2016-11 198.9 6.8
2016-12 231.2 6.9
2017-01 281.8 6.7
2017-02 303.4 6.6
2017-03 322.0 6.6
2017-04 338.8 6.4
2017-05 371.4 6.5
2017-06 426.5 6.5
2017-07 449.6 6.3
2017-08 472.2 6.2
2017-09 484.8 6.2
2017-10 512.5 6.2
2017-11 593.7 5.9
2017-12 658.5 5.8
2018-01 570.5 5.9
Note: Last data point is January 2018.
Source: Statistics Canada.
Average Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Since 2016Q2
Countries per cent
Canada 3.2
Germany 2.4
United States 2.4
France 2.0
United Kingdom 1.9
Japan 1.5
Italy 1.5
Note: Average quarterly real GDP growth. Last data point is 2017Q4 except for Canada, for which it is 2017Q3.
Source: Haver Analytics.

Chart A1.2

Chart A1.2a

Monthly Employment Gains and Unemployment Rate
Employment change (left scale)
2002 45.1
2003 25.0
2004 17.6
2005 18.0
2006 27.8
2007 30.0
2008 1.8
2009 -13.7
2010 25.7
2011 16.7
2012 26.0
2013 10.9
2014 9.0
2015 12.7
2016 18.5
2017 35.6
Note: Last data point is 2017 for employment.
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey (LFS).

Chart A1.2b

Growth in Average Weekly Earnings
Date per cent, year over year
2012-01-01 1.4
2012-02-01 1.2
2012-03-01 1.9
2012-04-01 2.2
2012-05-01 2.1
2012-06-01 2.7
2012-07-01 3.6
2012-08-01 3.6
2012-09-01 3.4
2012-10-01 2.4
2012-11-01 2.7
2012-12-01 2.6
2013-01-01 1.8
2013-02-01 2.8
2013-03-01 1.9
2013-04-01 1.6
2013-05-01 2.5
2013-06-01 1.8
2013-07-01 1.0
2013-08-01 0.8
2013-09-01 1.1
2013-10-01 1.4
2013-11-01 2.1
2013-12-01 2.4
2014-01-01 2.5
2014-02-01 2.4
2014-03-01 2.6
2014-04-01 3.1
2014-05-01 2.4
2014-06-01 2.9
2014-07-01 3.5
2014-08-01 3.1
2014-09-01 3.0
2014-10-01 2.7
2014-11-01 1.8
2014-12-01 1.8
2015-01-01 2.7
2015-02-01 2.5
2015-03-01 2.7
2015-04-01 2.4
2015-05-01 1.3
2015-06-01 1.8
2015-07-01 1.4
2015-08-01 0.6
2015-09-01 1.5
2015-10-01 1.4
2015-11-01 1.5
2015-12-01 1.7
2016-01-01 0.1
2016-02-01 0.4
2016-03-01 0.5
2016-04-01 -0.2
2016-05-01 0.6
2016-06-01 0.4
2016-07-01 -0.2
2016-08-01 1.4
2016-09-01 0.1
2016-10-01 -0.1
2016-11-01 0.9
2016-12-01 1.4
2017-01-01 1.7
2017-02-01 1.1
2017-03-01 1.0
2017-04-01 1.9
2017-05-01 1.7
2017-06-01 1.5
2017-07-01 1.4
2017-08-01 1.9
2017-09-01 2.9
2017-10-01 3.1
2017-11-01 2.8
Note: Last data point is November 2017.
Source: Statistics Canada, Survey of Employment, Payroll and Hours (SEPH).

Chart A1.3

Chart A1.3a

Growth in Real Household Consumption and Real Compensation of Employees
per cent, year over year
Real compensation of employees Real household final consumption expenditure
2007 Q1 4.9 4.0
2007 Q2 4.4 4.6
2007 Q3 3.6 4.4
2007 Q4 2.9 5.2
2008 Q1 3.6 5.1
2008 Q2 2.4 3.7
2008 Q3 1.0 2.8
2008 Q4 1.5 -0.3
2009 Q1 -0.8 -1.4
2009 Q2 -1.5 -0.7
2009 Q3 -0.9 0.4
2009 Q4 -1.6 2.3
2010 Q1 -0.6 3.8
2010 Q2 1.4 3.8
2010 Q3 2.1 3.5
2010 Q4 2.4 3.7
2011 Q1 3.4 2.8
2011 Q2 2.1 2.4
2011 Q3 2.2 2.0
2011 Q4 2.2 1.7
2012 Q1 1.6 2.1
2012 Q2 3.1 1.8
2012 Q3 3.7 1.9
2012 Q4 3.6 1.9
2013 Q1 3.8 1.9
2013 Q2 3.2 2.7
2013 Q3 2.5 2.8
2013 Q4 3.1 2.9
2014 Q1 2.2 2.6
2014 Q2 1.7 2.7
2014 Q3 2.2 2.7
2014 Q4 1.5 2.8
2015 Q1 2.6 2.5
2015 Q2 2.2 2.0
2015 Q3 1.0 2.0
2015 Q4 1.0 1.9
2016 Q1 -0.1 2.2
2016 Q2 0.0 2.3
2016 Q3 0.4 2.4
2016 Q4 0.8 2.6
2017 Q1 1.1 3.1
2017 Q2 2.0 3.8
2017 Q3 2.7 4.0
Notes: Real compensation is calculated as the sum of wages and salaries and employers’ social contributions, deflated by the total Consumer Price Index. Last data point is 2017Q3.
Sources: Statistics Canada; Department of Finance Canada calculations.

Chart A1.3b

The data from chart A1.3b cannot be released due to legal, licensing, or copryright reasons.

Chart A1.4

Provincial Unemployment Rates
per cent
  January 2018 July 2014
Que. 5.4 8.1
Ont. 5.5 7.6
B.C. 4.8 6.2
N.S. 8.2 9.6
Can. 5.9 7.1
N.B. 9.1 9.8
Man. 5.6 5.3
P.E.I. 10.6 8.9
N.L. 14.0 12.2
Sask. 5.4 3.3
Alta. 7.0 4.5
Source: Statistics Canada.
Long-Term Unemployment as a Share of Total Unemployment
per cent
15 years and over 15-24 years old 25-54 years old 55 years and over
1990 18.5 10.5 21.1 28.2
1991 23.3 14.2 26.1 33.9
1992 28.1 16.8 31.4 42.4
1993 30.9 18.5 34.4 43.1
1994 30.3 17.6 33.7 43.3
1995 27.2 14.6 30.6 41.2
1996 27.1 14.0 31.2 37.2
1997 24.9 12.3 29.4 35.1
1998 22.2 11.0 25.9 35.4
1999 19.5 9.1 23.1 32.7
2000 17.6 7.6 21.6 26.3
2001 15.1 6.3 18.0 25.5
2002 16.6 6.2 19.9 29.4
2003 16.4 6.4 19.4 28.5
2004 15.9 6.1 19.4 25.8
2005 15.3 6.0 18.0 26.7
2006 14.2 4.9 17.4 23.1
2007 13.2 4.3 15.9 22.9
2008 13.1 4.6 16.0 21.3
2009 16.1 7.1 18.4 26.4
2010 21.2 8.5 24.9 32.0
2011 21.3 9.1 25.1 31.4
2012 19.3 8.7 22.4 29.2
2013 20.1 9.8 23.2 28.5
2014 20.0 10.2 22.4 29.6
2015 18.9 9.9 20.7 28.2
2016 19.4 9.1 21.2 29.8
2017 19.8 8.9 21.3 30.1
Notes: Long-term unemployment is defined as individuals unemployed for a period of 27 weeks or more. Last data point is 2017.
Source: Statistics Canada.

Chart A1.5

Chart A1.5a

Real Business Investment Growth and the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS) Indicator
  Real business investment (right scale) BOS indicator (left scale)
2001 Q1 4.1 0.52
2001 Q2 2.8 -2.51
2001 Q3 1.8 -3.63
2001 Q4 -4.9 -5.00
2002 Q1 -7.6 -2.95
2002 Q2 -6.8 0.74
2002 Q3 -5.1 0.53
2002 Q4 1.5 -0.63
2003 Q1 4.6 -0.74
2003 Q2 5.3 -1.92
2003 Q3 6.7 -0.46
2003 Q4 10.4 -0.82
2004 Q1 10.8 -0.76
2004 Q2 10.3 0.98
2004 Q3 9.1 1.18
2004 Q4 7.7 0.49
2005 Q1 9.4 1.35
2005 Q2 10.2 1.11
2005 Q3 12.8 3.10
2005 Q4 14.6 2.92
2006 Q1 12.2 2.40
2006 Q2 12.1 2.02
2006 Q3 8.5 1.39
2006 Q4 5.3 1.28
2007 Q1 4.1 2.24
2007 Q2 2.4 1.33
2007 Q3 1.8 0.42
2007 Q4 3.4 0.59
2008 Q1 6.6 0.17
2008 Q2 6.1 1.67
2008 Q3 5.2 -0.87
2008 Q4 -1.9 -7.36
2009 Q1 -19.2 -6.56
2009 Q2 -22.6 -4.44
2009 Q3 -21.6 -2.53
2009 Q4 -15.1 -1.16
2010 Q1 4.7 -0.14
2010 Q2 14.1 1.14
2010 Q3 16.6 1.54
2010 Q4 18.1 1.96
2011 Q1 14.6 1.82
2011 Q2 13.1 3.32
2011 Q3 10.1 0.89
2011 Q4 8.2 1.07
2012 Q1 8.3 1.62
2012 Q2 6.7 1.68
2012 Q3 6.6 0.26
2012 Q4 5.8 -0.25
2013 Q1 5.2 -1.10
2013 Q2 3.8 -0.07
2013 Q3 3.9 0.35
2013 Q4 4.0 0.70
2014 Q1 3.1 2.02
2014 Q2 3.5 0.13
2014 Q3 4.3 1.37
2014 Q4 4.8 -0.50
2015 Q1 -4.5 -0.67
2015 Q2 -8.3 -1.23
2015 Q3 -12.6 -1.13
2015 Q4 -15.8 -2.88
2016 Q1 -10.9 -1.43
2016 Q2 -9.2 -1.61
2016 Q3 -5.4 -0.78
2016 Q4 -7.5 1.03
2017 Q1 -1.8 0.68
2017 Q2 1.4 2.77
2017 Q3 1.6 0.83
2017 Q4   2.49
Notes: The BOS indicator extracts common movements from the main BOS questions. Last data point is 2017Q4 for the BOS indicator and 2017Q3 for real business investment.
Sources: Statistics Canada; Bank of Canada; Department of Finance Canada calculations

Chart A1.5b

Real Business Investment Growth and Capacity Utilization
Real business investment (right scale) Industrial capacity utilization (left scale) Average capacity utilization since 1987 (left scale)
2001 Q1 4.09 84.1 83.0
2001 Q2 2.83 83.8 83.0
2001 Q3 1.78 82.5 83.0
2001 Q4 -4.86 81.9 83.0
2002 Q1 -7.62 83.5 83.0
2002 Q2 -6.83 84.7 83.0
2002 Q3 -5.13 84.6 83.0
2002 Q4 1.48 84.2 83.0
2003 Q1 4.62 84.1 83.0
2003 Q2 5.30 83.5 83.0
2003 Q3 6.72 84.1 83.0
2003 Q4 10.36 85.4 83.0
2004 Q1 10.81 85.4 83.0
2004 Q2 10.28 85.8 83.0
2004 Q3 9.09 86.0 83.0
2004 Q4 7.66 85.9 83.0
2005 Q1 9.43 85.5 83.0
2005 Q2 10.20 85.8 83.0
2005 Q3 12.79 86.1 83.0
2005 Q4 14.63 86.6 83.0
2006 Q1 12.17 86.4 83.0
2006 Q2 12.15 85.5 83.0
2006 Q3 8.52 84.5 83.0
2006 Q4 5.33 84.2 83.0
2007 Q1 4.08 85.6 83.0
2007 Q2 2.39 86.0 83.0
2007 Q3 1.80 85.3 83.0
2007 Q4 3.44 83.2 83.0
2008 Q1 6.55 81.2 83.0
2008 Q2 6.12 80.9 83.0
2008 Q3 5.23 81.5 83.0
2008 Q4 -1.95 79.2 83.0
2009 Q1 -19.25 74.8 83.0
2009 Q2 -22.59 72.7 83.0
2009 Q3 -21.60 73.5 83.0
2009 Q4 -15.12 75.5 83.0
2010 Q1 4.69 77.5 83.0
2010 Q2 14.09 79.1 83.0
2010 Q3 16.61 79.5 83.0
2010 Q4 18.11 79.9 83.0
2011 Q1 14.61 80.7 83.0
2011 Q2 13.10 80.3 83.0
2011 Q3 10.06 82.0 83.0
2011 Q4 8.22 82.1 83.0
2012 Q1 8.26 81.6 83.0
2012 Q2 6.68 81.6 83.0
2012 Q3 6.62 80.6 83.0
2012 Q4 5.76 80.2 83.0
2013 Q1 5.22 80.9 83.0
2013 Q2 3.81 80.5 83.0
2013 Q3 3.94 80.9 83.0
2013 Q4 3.97 81.7 83.0
2014 Q1 3.05 81.3 83.0
2014 Q2 3.54 82.8 83.0
2014 Q3 4.35 82.2 83.0
2014 Q4 4.77 82.7 83.0
2015 Q1 -4.47 81.3 83.0
2015 Q2 -8.27 80.0 83.0
2015 Q3 -12.62 80.6 83.0
2015 Q4 -15.78 80.0 83.0
2016 Q1 -10.95 80.2 83.0
2016 Q2 -9.21 78.4 83.0
2016 Q3 -5.37 80.7 83.0
2016 Q4 -7.48 81.4 83.0
2017 Q1 -1.79 82.7 83.0
2017 Q2 1.40 84.3 83.0
2017 Q3 1.65 85.0 83.0
Note: Last data point is 2017Q3.
Sources: Statistics Canada; Department of Finance Canada calculations.

Chart A1.6

Canadian Real Exports
index, 2014Q3 = 100
  Total exports Non-energy goods Energy goods Services
2013 Q1 91.1 91.3 93.9 91.8
2013 Q2 92.7 93.2 93.9 93.5
2013 Q3 92.4 91.4 96.2 95.9
2013 Q4 93.4 92.6 97.1 95.3
2014 Q1 92.8 91.3 94.7 97.2
2014 Q2 98.8 98.9 99.3 100.3
2014 Q3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
2014 Q4 99.9 99.6 97.8 102.3
2015 Q1 99.4 98.2 102.8 103.0
2015 Q2 101.1 100.5 103.5 103.0
2015 Q3 102.7 102.6 104.3 103.8
2015 Q4 101.9 102.4 101.2 103.1
2016 Q1 104.0 104.4 103.1 105.9
2016 Q2 100.2 100.2 97.3 106.1
2016 Q3 102.3 102.3 102.8 107.5
2016 Q4 102.6 101.7 110.9 108.0
2017 Q1 103.2 101.7 115.1 108.3
2017 Q2 104.8 102.5 119.3 109.0
2017 Q3 102.0 99.0 114.5 109.8
Notes: Energy goods include crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum products, electricity and coal. Last data point is 2017Q3.
Source: Statistics Canada; Department of Finance Canada calculations.
Canadian Real Exports and Index of U.S. Demand for Canadian Imports
Total Canadian exports
(left scale)
billions of chained 2007 dollars		 Index of U.S. demand for Canadian exports
(right scale)
index, 2014Q1 = 100
2014 Q1 527.5 100.0
2014 Q2 562.0 100.9
2014 Q3 568.7 101.7
2014 Q4 568.3 102.0
2015 Q1 565.2 102.5
2015 Q2 575.2 103.4
2015 Q3 584.1 103.8
2015 Q4 579.3 103.7
2016 Q1 591.2 103.3
2016 Q2 569.9 103.8
2016 Q3 582.0 104.4
2016 Q4 583.6 104.7
2017 Q1 587.0 105.6
2017 Q2 595.8 106.5
2017 Q3 579.9 107.2
Notes: The index of U.S. demand for Canadian exports is a weighted average of real U.S. final demand, including exports, where the weights are the propensity to import from Canada. Last data point is 2017Q3.
Sources: Statistics Canada; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Department of Finance Canada calculations.

Chart A1.7

The data from chart A1.7 cannot be released due to legal, licensing, or copryright reasons.

Chart A1.9

The data from chart A1.9 cannot be released due to legal, licensing, or copryright reasons.

Chart A1.10

Global Real GDP Growth Outlook
Year per cent
2010 5.4
2011 4.3
2012 3.5
2013 3.5
2014 3.6
2015 3.4
2016 3.2
2017 3.7
2018 3.9
2019 3.9
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), January 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update.
Percentage of Countries in Recession
per cent
1980 25.7
1981 25.0
1982 32.4
1983 32.4
1984 15.2
1985 20.0
1986 15.8
1987 18.5
1988 16.3
1989 15.6
1990 24.7
1991 24.5
1992 23.7
1993 31.0
1994 21.8
1995 15.2
1996 8.6
1997 12.6
1998 15.2
1999 18.2
2000 11.0
2001 14.9
2002 12.2
2003 10.0
2004 5.3
2005 5.8
2006 5.2
2007 4.7
2008 13.6
2009 47.6
2010 10.5
2011 10.0
2012 18.2
2013 14.1
2014 9.9
2015 12.0
2016 13.0
2017 6.8
2018 3.1
2019 2.6
2020 2.1
2021 1.6
2022 2.1
Source: IMF, October 2017 WEO.

Chart A1.11

Assets Held by Central Banks
per cent of national GDP
Bank of Japan (left scale) European Central Bank (right scale) U.S. Federal Reserve (right scale)
2007 Q1 21.1 12.6 6.1
2007 Q2 18.7 12.9 6.0
2007 Q3 21.0 13.2 6.1
2007 Q4 21.0 15.8 6.1
2008 Q1 21.4 14.1 6.1
2008 Q2 19.3 14.5 6.0
2008 Q3 21.8 18.2 8.2
2008 Q4 24.0 21.8 15.4
2009 Q1 25.5 19.8 14.4
2009 Q2 22.3 20.7 14.1
2009 Q3 23.8 19.9 14.9
2009 Q4 24.9 20.3 15.3
2010 Q1 24.6 20.7 15.7
2010 Q2 22.7 21.6 15.7
2010 Q3 23.8 19.5 15.3
2010 Q4 25.7 20.7 15.9
2011 Q1 28.9 19.4 17.2
2011 Q2 26.7 19.9 18.5
2011 Q3 27.8 23.3 18.3
2011 Q4 28.9 27.8 18.5
2012 Q1 27.8 30.1 18.0
2012 Q2 29.0 31.6 17.8
2012 Q3 30.5 31.1 17.3
2012 Q4 32.1 30.1 17.8
2013 Q1 33.1 26.9 19.4
2013 Q2 37.3 24.5 21.0
2013 Q3 41.2 23.6 22.3
2013 Q4 44.2 22.7 23.7
2014 Q1 47.2 21.4 24.8
2014 Q2 50.2 20.5 25.2
2014 Q3 54.0 20.2 25.3
2014 Q4 58.0 21.5 25.4
2015 Q1 61.1 22.4 25.1
2015 Q2 64.9 23.9 24.8
2015 Q3 68.6 24.9 24.6
2015 Q4 71.9 26.2 24.5
2016 Q1 75.5 27.5 24.5
2016 Q2 80.3 30.1 24.1
2016 Q3 84.9 31.8 23.8
2016 Q4 88.2 33.6 23.5
2017 Q1 90.7 37.3 23.5
2017 Q2 92.1 37.9 23.2
2017 Q3 93.5 38.5 22.8
2017 Q4 95.0 22.5
Note: Last data points are 2017Q3 for the European Central Bank and 2017Q4 for the Bank of Japan and U.S. Federal Reserve.
Source : Haver Analytics.

Chart A1.11b

The data from chart A1.11 cannot be released due to legal, licensing, or copryright reasons.

Chart A1.12

Chart A1.12a

U.S. Actual and Potential Real GDP
trillions of US$2009
Real GDP Potential real GDP
2007 Q1 14.7 14.7
2007 Q2 14.8 14.8
2007 Q3 14.9 14.9
2007 Q4 15.0 14.9
2008 Q1 14.9 15.0
2008 Q2 15.0 15.1
2008 Q3 14.9 15.1
2008 Q4 14.6 15.2
2009 Q1 14.4 15.2
2009 Q2 14.4 15.3
2009 Q3 14.4 15.3
2009 Q4 14.5 15.4
2010 Q1 14.6 15.4
2010 Q2 14.7 15.4
2010 Q3 14.8 15.5
2010 Q4 14.9 15.5
2011 Q1 14.9 15.5
2011 Q2 15.0 15.6
2011 Q3 15.0 15.6
2011 Q4 15.2 15.7
2012 Q1 15.3 15.7
2012 Q2 15.4 15.8
2012 Q3 15.4 15.8
2012 Q4 15.4 15.9
2013 Q1 15.5 16.0
2013 Q2 15.5 16.0
2013 Q3 15.6 16.1
2013 Q4 15.8 16.1
2014 Q1 15.8 16.2
2014 Q2 15.9 16.3
2014 Q3 16.1 16.3
2014 Q4 16.2 16.4
2015 Q1 16.4 16.5
2015 Q2 16.5 16.5
2015 Q3 16.5 16.6
2015 Q4 16.5 16.7
2016 Q1 16.6 16.7
2016 Q2 16.7 16.8
2016 Q3 16.8 16.9
2016 Q4 16.9 16.9
2017 Q1 16.9 17.0
2017 Q2 17.0 17.1
2017 Q3 17.2 17.1
2017 Q4 17.3 17.2
Note: Last data point is 2017Q4.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Congressional Budget Office.

Chart A1.12b

25-54 Age Group Employment Rate and Overall Wage Growth
Employment rate of 25-54 age group (left scale) Overall hourly wage growth (right scale)
2007-01-01 80.3
2007-02-01 80.1
2007-03-01 80.2 3.4
2007-04-01 80 3.1
2007-05-01 80 3.5
2007-06-01 79.9 3.6
2007-07-01 79.8 3.3
2007-08-01 79.8 3.3
2007-09-01 79.7 3.1
2007-10-01 79.6 3
2007-11-01 79.7 3.1
2007-12-01 79.7 2.9
2008-01-01 80 2.9
2008-02-01 79.9 2.9
2008-03-01 79.8 3
2008-04-01 79.6 2.9
2008-05-01 79.5 3.1
2008-06-01 79.4 2.7
2008-07-01 79.2 3.1
2008-08-01 78.8 3.3
2008-09-01 78.8 3.3
2008-10-01 78.4 3.3
2008-11-01 78.1 3.5
2008-12-01 77.6 3.6
2009-01-01 77 3.6
2009-02-01 76.7 3.4
2009-03-01 76.2 3.3
2009-04-01 76.2 3.4
2009-05-01 75.9 2.9
2009-06-01 75.9 2.9
2009-07-01 75.8 2.7
2009-08-01 75.6 2.4
2009-09-01 75.1 2.4
2009-10-01 75 2.5
2009-11-01 75.2 2.1
2009-12-01 74.8 2
2010-01-01 75.1 2.1
2010-02-01 75.1 2.1
2010-03-01 75.1 1.8
2010-04-01 75.4 1.8
2010-05-01 75.1 1.9
2010-06-01 75.2 1.8
2010-07-01 75.1 1.8
2010-08-01 75 1.8
2010-09-01 75.1 1.8
2010-10-01 75 1.9
2010-11-01 74.8 1.8
2010-12-01 75 1.8
2011-01-01 75.2 2
2011-02-01 75.1 1.8
2011-03-01 75.3 1.8
2011-04-01 75.1 1.9
2011-05-01 75.2 2
2011-06-01 75 2.1
2011-07-01 75 2.3
2011-08-01 75.1 1.9
2011-09-01 74.9 1.9
2011-10-01 74.9 2.1
2011-11-01 75.3 2
2011-12-01 75.4 2
2012-01-01 75.5 1.7
2012-02-01 75.5 1.8
2012-03-01 75.7 2.1
2012-04-01 75.7 2.1
2012-05-01 75.7 1.7
2012-06-01 75.6 2
2012-07-01 75.6 1.7
2012-08-01 75.7 1.9
2012-09-01 76 2
2012-10-01 76.1 1.5
2012-11-01 75.8 1.9
2012-12-01 76 2.1
2013-01-01 75.6 2.1
2013-02-01 75.8 2.2
2013-03-01 75.8 1.9
2013-04-01 75.8 2
2013-05-01 76 2.1
2013-06-01 75.9 2.1
2013-07-01 76 2.1
2013-08-01 76 2.3
2013-09-01 76 2
2013-10-01 75.6 2.2
2013-11-01 76.1 2.2
2013-12-01 76.1 1.9
2014-01-01 76.4 2
2014-02-01 76.4 2.2
2014-03-01 76.6 2.1
2014-04-01 76.5 2
2014-05-01 76.4 2.1
2014-06-01 76.9 2
2014-07-01 76.7 2.1
2014-08-01 76.8 2.2
2014-09-01 76.8 2.2
2014-10-01 76.9 2
2014-11-01 76.9 2
2014-12-01 77.1 2
2015-01-01 77.1 2.2
2015-02-01 77.2 1.9
2015-03-01 77.2 2.2
2015-04-01 77.2 2.2
2015-05-01 77.2 2.3
2015-06-01 77.4 2.2
2015-07-01 77.1 2.1
2015-08-01 77.2 2.2
2015-09-01 77.2 2.2
2015-10-01 77.2 2.5
2015-11-01 77.4 2.4
2015-12-01 77.4 2.6
2016-01-01 77.7 2.5
2016-02-01 77.8 2.4
2016-03-01 78 2.5
2016-04-01 77.8 2.6
2016-05-01 77.8 2.4
2016-06-01 77.9 2.6
2016-07-01 77.9 2.8
2016-08-01 77.8 2.5
2016-09-01 78 2.6
2016-10-01 78.2 2.7
2016-11-01 78.1 2.6
2016-12-01 78.1 2.7
2017-01-01 78.2 2.4
2017-02-01 78.4 2.7
2017-03-01 78.5 2.6
2017-04-01 78.6 2.5
2017-05-01 78.4 2.5
2017-06-01 78.6 2.5
2017-07-01 78.6 2.5
2017-08-01 78.4 2.6
2017-09-01 78.9 2.8
2017-10-01 78.9 2.3
2017-11-01 79 2.5
2017-12-01 79.1 2.7
2018-01-01 79 2.9
Note: Last data point is January 2018.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Chart A1.13

Chart A1.13a

The data from chart A1.13a cannot be released due to legal, licensing, or copryright reasons.

Chart A1.13b

Euro Area Output Gaps, 2017
per cent of potential GDP
Germany Euro Area Spain Italy France
0.8 -0.5 -0.7 -1.6 -1.8
Source: IMF, October 2017 World Economic Outlook.

Chart A1.14

Emerging Economies Growth Outlook
per cent
2012 5.4
2013 5.1
2014 4.7
2015 4.3
2016 4.4
2017 4.7
2018 4.9
2019 5.0
Source: IMF, January 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update.
Projected Growth in Select Emerging Economies
per cent
China India Mexico Brazil Russia
2017 6.8 6.7 2.0 1.1 1.8
2018-2019 average 6.5 7.6 2.7 2.0 1.6
Note: Growth is presented on a fiscal year basis for India.
Source: IMF, January 2018 WEO Update.

Chart A1.15

Federal Debt-to-GDP Ratio
per cent
1980 29.2
1981 29.3
1982 35.3
1983 37.5
1984 42.2
1985 45.7
1986 49.1
1987 50.1
1988 50.4
1989 51.4
1990 54.5
1991 58.6
1992 62.7
1993 65.5
1994 66.4
1995 66.8
1996 65.7
1997 61.9
1998 59.1
1999 53.7
2000 47.2
2001 44.9
2002 42.5
2003 39.7
2004 37.2
2005 34
2006 31.3
2007 29.1
2008 28.1
2009 33.1
2010 33.1
2011 33
2012 33.4
2013 32.2
2014 30.9
2015 31
2016 31
2017 30.4
2018 30.1
2019 29.8
2020 29.4
2021 28.9
2022 28.4
Sources: Public Accounts of Canada; Statistics Canada; Department of Finance Canada calculations.
IMF Forecast for G7 General Government Net Debt-to-GDP Ratios, 2017
per cent
Canada 24.6
Germany 45.8
United
Kingdom		 80.5
United
States		 82.5
France 88.5
Japan 120.9
Italy 121.2
G7 average 83.7
Notes: The general government net debt-to-GDP ratio is the ratio of total liabilities, net of financial assets, of the central, states and local levels of government, as well as those in social security funds, to GDP. For Canada, this includes the federal, provincial/territorial and local government sectors, as well as the Canada Pension Plan and the Quebec Pension Plan.
Source: IMF, October 2017 Fiscal Monitor.

Chart A1.16

Budgetary Balance
Budget 2017 (left scale)
$ billions		 Budget 2018 (left scale)
$ billions		 Budgetary balance as a share of GDP (right scale)
per cent of GDP
2017-2018 -28.5 -19.4 -0.9
2018-2019 -27.4 -18.1 -0.8
2019-2020 -23.4 -17.5 -0.8
2020-2021 -21.7 -16.9 -0.7
2021-2022 -18.8 -13.8 -0.6
2022-2023 -12.3 -0.5
Source: Department of Finance Canada

Chart A1.17

Federal Budgetary Balance
$ billions
2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023
Budget 2018 survey -17.8 -19.4 -15.1 -14.5 -13.9 -10.8 -9.3
Budget 2018 survey (top four) -17.8 -19.4 -14.7 -12.0 -10.3 -5.6 -3.0
Budget 2018 survey (bottom four) -17.8 -19.5 -15.8 -18.7 -18.6 -16.0 -15.2
Notes: Based on the average private sector economists’ projection for nominal GDP and excluding the adjustment for risk. The top (bottom) four scenarios are based on the average of the most optimistic (pessimistic) projections for nominal GDP among the economists surveyed. 
Sources: Department of Finance Canada December 2017 survey of private sector economists; Department of Finance Canada calculations. 
Federal Debt-to-GDP Ratio
per cent of GDP
2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023
Budget 2018 survey 31.0 30.4 29.9 29.5 29.0 28.4 27.8
Budget 2018 survey (top four) 31.0 30.4 29.9 29.2 28.5 27.6 26.6
Budget 2018 survey (bottom four) 31.0 30.4 30.0 30.1 29.8 29.5 29.0
Notes: Based on the average private sector economists’ projection for nominal GDP and excluding the adjustment for risk. The top (bottom) four scenarios are based on the average of the most optimistic (pessimistic) projections for nominal GDP among the economists surveyed. 
Sources: Department of Finance Canada December 2017 survey of private sector economists; Department of Finance Canada calculations. 
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